Something is building up

The market has been stagnant on higher timeframes for a long time right now. After the Brexit and before US election the money is hesitating to move.

05 - UJ

UJ continues moving in the same range for the fourth month. USD looks like a complete mess on daily, with most pairs showing very choppy price action. JPY has been creating some cycles, notably with increasing bearish strength.

How much higher can JPY go without a significant correction? If the last 3 months has restored the balance on the Market and if JPY is unable to descend soon, the bullish cycle will continue with some significant strength. Notably, most JPY pairs are breaking their Daily trendlines right now. Notably also is that no JPY pairs (other than GJ – barely) have managed to break their Brexit highs.

05 - EG

EUR has been probably the most flat currency in many, many months. Looking at its cycle (blue line on the right Daily graph), it has barely managed to reach the high on a couple ocassions, just to be instantly rejected – not the most bullish sign. Looking at the currency profile on the left, the market has found value on this currency on almost all trading pairs with an interesting triangle on Weekly on EA and on Daily on EU (see first chart).

GBP on the other hand is trading in a seemingly permament bearish cycle. It is testing post-Brexit lows right now, for the third time in 3 months. The main question is – how much longer can this trend continue? How low should it go that traders would refuse to sell? If the price shows acceptance just below the Brexit lows, we are in for another ride.

Interesting to note though, that GBP is starting a bullish correction right now. The price action of the next 2-3 weeks could help to see the picture more clearly.

August 18th – GU

18 - GU

GBP is possibly starting a Daily reversal. It’s been oversold for way too long and no one wants to sell further at these prices. However, right now it is finishing its bullish cycle on H4. I want to see the price action in the coming bearish cycle, and if bears will show weakness, GBP will be probably the best currency to buy at the moment.

USD is the strongest bearish currency today, but it does not look just as convincing. There is definitely pressure building up, as many pairs face significant support. However, it is finishing its bearish cycle on Daily (with relatively weak bearish price action) and also on H4. UN and UJ look like great trading pairs to buy for the mid term.

GA – BOE rate cut

4 - GA

A strong bearish move in GBP due to the rate cut today. It will be interesting to watch if GBP sustains this move, since it is meeting support areas in some pairs (GE, GN, GU, GH).

AUD was the strongest bullish currency of the day, but most AUD pairs have struggled to push higher (AU, AC, AN, AJ). AC and AU offer good selling prices.

GJ – Weak correction after a strong week

18 - GJ (H1-H4)

A very weak and conflicted price action today. Not a single currency managed to dominate, but GBP and JPY are the two strongest in the end.

After a strong bullish week on GJ, clearly visible on H4, it closed with a strong bearish day on Friday. The worst possible scenario for bulls is to see price action in their direction, but showing clear signs of struggle. Bulls did manage to raise the price by the end of the day, but given that this is the strongest move on the Market today, and comparing it with the prior bearish move on Friday, it looks like the bears are far from done in this pair.

The Market is already offering good selling price right now, it will be very interesting to watch how the traders bet their money tomorrow.

GN – Strong continuation, NC – Possible daily reversal

14 - GN (H1-H4) small

After showing strong bearish move yesterday, today GBP completely reversed and put up a bullish move. Interestingly, half of this move happened in the very early hours, before BOE kept the interest rate unchanged. No matter how much fear mongering media will create, at some point there will not be any trader willing to sell GBP this low. It will be interesting to see if it creates a significant bullish cycle on Daily-Weekly.

NZD has been the most bullish currency in the past couple weeks and now it also starts correcting – possible even reversing. RBNZ will be meeting on 10th of August and unless NZD depreciates by then there is a very good chance of a rate cut. The Market would normally price upcoming change before hand, so we might see a bearish cycle on NZD for the next 3 weeks.

Together, GBN and NZD represent two of the most interesting currencies at the moment, because they have been leading the whole market (together with JPY) recently.

NZD is also interesting because together with CAD it represents the strongest bearish move this week so far:

14 - NC (H4-D1)

The bullish move created by NC at the end of the last week is completely cancelled now. The price is approaching Daily TL.

Looking at NZD profile on H4, many pairs have broken below their recent swing lows.

Looking at CAD, the bullish move this week is very well sustained so far (with exception being CG). However, CAD is slowing down and is very likely to correct in the last couple days, before it can continue higher. Supply is coming at these higher prices virtually on all CAD trading pairs.

GC – Reversal after a strong move

13 - GC (D-W)

13 - GC (Daily Picture)

GC reversed from minor SR zones on Daily. However, CA and CN were rejected from major Weekly support zones.

Interesting to see how H1 was interacting with prior SR levels. First real support came around the middle of the day. If we look at currency profiles, the pause was caused by bullish moves in NZD, AUD and to leser extent CHF. As soon as these other currencies stopped pushing CAD down, it instantly broke through the support.

A bit later price overcame another significant support area from the previous day. Will be interesting to see if the price will come back to retest it tomorrow and it can be key to the future direction of this pair.

Note CJ and CH – both pairs came to a resistance that they were unable to overcome. These If JPY and CHF push higher tomorrow, CAD will have to wait with its ascendance.