Then I checked out the car that UBS tore down to research materials (all prices in pesos):
Wow, that’s not so cheap! But seems like a great car – 238 miles with no charge really let’s you travel gas free. Charges completely in under 10 hours. Great daily car, but it seems like it’s not the time to be buying EVs yet. In the next 2-3 years the prices are bound to go much lower.
This is pretty much the direction the world is going into. It is not even so much about Tesla or Chevrolet – pretty much every major car maker has semi or full EV, or developing one.
So I thought that maybe this is something worth looking into as an investment.
Let’s look at the chart, first for Lithium:
One after another many major R levels broken since 2016, including major Bearish trendline. Next target – all time highs near $45. This is the furthest back I could find with a quick search.
Zooming in on Lithium…
Major Bullish trend, no question about it! Best investment opportunities were in 2016, but there are bound to be more corrections along the way.
Wait, what happened during the last week??? Huge gap and the biggest Bullish week in recent years. On top of that, the biggest trading volume EVER.
Apparently, as I was reading earlier this week (but not connecting the dots properly in my head), China has just unveiled a plan to ban petrol cars! Sounds crazy! But the crazier part is that in case of China it means that they are going to replace gas powered cars with coal powered cars, because that’s where China gets 65% of its power. 😀
Well, leaving environmental issues aside, the news is driving Lithium way up.
Coming back to the recent volume/price spike, here is an article going into it in more detail.
So how could one trade Lithium? Apparently, you can’t – at least not pure Lithium (i.e. Futures). All the details are in this great article by Reuters.
When you look at the chart about to take a trade, you are still hesitating, still unsure whether this is the right one. You are still uncertain about pulling the trigger.
Remember – it will always be like this!
No matter how much you trade, this feeling of uncertainty for the outcome of any one trade is not only to be expected, but to be desired. This is the feeling that tells you – you perceive the Market correctly.
Recognize the uncertainty, accept it with a smile. The nature of trading lies in this everlasting uncertainty, never being sure about the outcome of any given trade. Having accepted the uncertainty – pull the trigger, take the trade.
If you already have a solid system, then over the next 20 trades you will turn a profit, of which you can be certain. If you are still in the process of fine-tuning your system, it is only possible to fine-tune through placing these trades amidst all the uncertainty the Market throws at you.
Be comfortable with ambiguity. Take the fear out of equation by accepting that losses are needed to turn a profit, by accepting the uncertainty as the core part of the game. You are only afraid of something you try to avoid. Fear dissipates as soon as you embrace that which you are afraid of.
Trading is only difficult when you have inappropriate expectations. You ensure it will be difficult by expecting it to be easy. You ensure frustration when you expect the Market to be certain and predictable. By expecting the Market to do what you think it should do, you ensure disgust and subsequent lack of confidence – guaranteeing that you will not be available for the trade which the Market does agree with.
Expecting not to lose, you are sure not to win.
Expecting to be right, you are already wrong.
Give up all your expectations, let the Market go where it will, do what it must and behave as it should. Stay fascinated, stay uncertain and confused but with a smile. Place a trade and be fascinated when the Market occasionally agrees with you!
How often do you feel frustrated because of the Market? How often the Market behaves in ways causing stress and anxiety? But truly, how can anything be “because of” the Market?
The Market can only reflect back what’s already inside of you. If frustration is boiling inside, if you are anxious and unsure, all these emotions will find the way out. It is irrelevant whether the Market will be the final straw or something else in your life.
The Market is a great teacher. The Market is fascinating. It is not “bad” nor is it the cause of anything.
Gather courage, look inside and face your own issues. Use the Market as your looking glass – what does it reflect back unto you? Seek such a mindset where the Market will reflect curiosity, fascination and acceptance.
Never allow yourself to lose track of the Market. It is constantly changing and as soon as you let your attention to waiver, it will take you to places you have never seen before.
Never let the Market travel far ahead of you! It will always be ahead, but it is your job to anticipate each turn it takes, carefully comparing what you have anticipated with how it moves in actuality. Be ready for all possibilities, avoid surprises.
If you are trading without first assuring your survival, you are just playing a game, a crazy gamble that a drunkard places over the weekend in Las Vegas casino. No real trader who aspires to reach constant profitability will participate in the Market without first assuring their survival.
The above is absolutely essential and goes without saying. It is assumed by default that your risk and money management, as well as psychological well-being, are taken proper care of.
Before anything else, you need the willingness to put in countless hours of work into the Market. Only this will allow you to gain this important subjective feel of the Market as you watch it. The trading ideas will come to you effortlessly and it will only remain for you to execute them. This is how you build your trading system.
Ask yourself: “Why am I not putting enough time into watching the Market? Why am I not willing to take losses, make mistakes and yet continue with my method, learning and improving with each passing day?” Find the answers. Write them in your diary. Propose the solution and implement it.
When you spend enough time on trading and seemingly totally committed to your success in trading, ask yourself this: “Why am I not acting on each and every idea I have? Why am I closing the trades before my targets are reached or my system tells me to close them? What am I afraid of?”
Honestly answering these questions in your daily diary will lead to important improvements to your trading system. Go back to the first step – putting countless hours of work – and repeat the process times and times again, with humble understanding that you will never be good enough to cease improving your method and your execution of it.
Above all else, remember – it is only possible to go through this difficult process when you have absolutely, perfectly ensured your financial and psychological survival! You cannot be worrying about your well-being or losing more than you can afford to lose AND going through the mandatory learning process of taking losses, making mistakes and being clueless.
It is important to be able to see the first signs of a fading trend. There is no better exercise than to watch hundreds of strong moves on history – the moves that always, inevitably fade, lose strength and reverse. Nothing lasts forever, and in order to stay in balance, Market must go through constant change, allowing some instruments to appreciate while others must depreciate. Inevitably, they will trade places, as one trend changes into another.
Take any market you trade and see a trend fade. Do not just look at one instrument, ask where the money is going if it is flowing from this market? If stock market becomes bearish, the money must go somewhere, whether it is bonds, metals, oil or just cash.
Each currency constantly moves in cycles. Each one has a cycle on each timeframe, starting with Weekly, then Daily and H4 inside of it. My job is to read traders’ emotions in every cycle. My job is to read price action in each cycle. My job is to watch how cycles change.
A currency cycle does not end without reason. In order for any bullish cycle to end, another currency’s bullish cycle must replace it. Even pausing of the cycle does not happen without reason – another currency must temporarily generate a strong move in the same direction in order to force the main trending currency to pause.
By trading at the end of the currency cycles I am ensuring the greatest potential for currency appreciation or depreciation.
By watching all currency cycles, I ensure an understanding of the reasons why a cycle ends or is paused.
By patiently executing one cycle after another, I ensure long term profitability, guaranteed through the edge present in my trading method. I do not have to worry about any individual trades – my job is to catch the cycles.
At the end of each successfully identified cycle I will always come out on top, regardless of likely losses accepted while trying to establish the winning entry. Through not worrying about an individual entry and instead concentrating on catching the cycle, I ensure relaxed and free trading.
It is often difficult to recover from frustration of bad trading. When you make the mistakes you know you shouldn’t have made. When your read of the Market had been particularly poor and you are feeling absolutely disgusted with yourself about it.
Notice your thinking, notice your feeling, hear your self-talk. Instead of learning something from your mistakes and using frustration as merely a catalyst to do something about it, you are succumbing to your frustration, carefully nurturing it together with your ego. You do not want frustration to end, because then it will be time to take action, fixing the issues you have in your trading. You’d much rather play the victim of big bad Market, who is out there to get you.
There is always something interesting going on in the Market. Different events will make different traders feel differently. Our job is to read their emotions and feelings the best we can and find out where the crowd will be trapped.